How Denver Has Stifled the Thunder Offense and What Needs to Change

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied 2-2 in a tense playoff series, despite the Thunder’s impressive regular season, where they posted the second-best net rating in NBA history. Denver has effectively disrupted Oklahoma City’s offense, which relies heavily on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s isolation play. This approach, while potent, has proven vulnerable in the playoffs, as Denver’s defense has consistently limited Gilgeous-Alexander’s opportunities.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot profile has shifted significantly, with 65% of his attempts coming from pull-up jumpers in this series, a notable increase from the regular season. The Nuggets have effectively cut off his driving lanes, forcing tougher, contested shots. Unlike Denver’s varied use of Jamal Murray, the Thunder have not consistently used off-ball actions to free their star guard, making it easier for the Nuggets to focus their defensive pressure.

Denver has also gambled on Oklahoma City’s secondary creators, like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, struggling to punish their help defense, a strategy that has largely paid off. Holmgren’s impact, though significant defensively, has been limited on offense, while Hartenstein’s minutes have seen the Thunder’s efficiency drop significantly.

A critical adjustment for the Thunder could involve reducing Luguentz Dort’s minutes. Dort has struggled offensively, shooting just 25% from three in this series and providing little as a secondary playmaker. In contrast, Cason Wallace has shown potential as a more versatile option on both ends of the court.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Thunder have defended well against Nikola Jokić, who has shot just 21-of-63 from the floor since Game 1. However, Denver’s ability to adapt and maintain defensive intensity has kept the series close.

For the Thunder to regain momentum, they need to push the pace, leverage transition opportunities, and find ways to keep Gilgeous-Alexander in more dynamic off-ball roles. With the series still up for grabs, the path to victory may come down to better execution and a bit of luck.